Analytics
Resolved Yes on 13 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 78%. Yes opened at 32% on 9 Oct 2026. Before it settled, the high was 78% on 13 Oct 2026 and the low 32% on 9 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 78% on 13 Oct 2026. $15.3K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 14, 5:26 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 9 Oct 2026 – 13 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | 32.0% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 78.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dedidanc | No | 894.06 |
| balthazar | No | 541.31 |
| edge999 | No | 477.7 |
| Kekto | No | 338.49 |
| acal | No | 200 |
| omri898 | No | 194.98 |
| chessplayer | No | 180 |
| himken | No | 120.9 |
| Fihdrzgdd | No | 120 |
| Olcan | No | 102.37 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google releases "Gemini Argon" or a model qualifying under the terms below, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gemini-argon-released-byptptpt
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