Analytics
Yes is at 0.5%, down 6.5 points from 7% when the market opened on 3 Oct 2026.
Across the 24 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 15.8% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.1%.
$4.34K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $31.28K since listing. The order book holds $17.41K, with a 0.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 300 trades, $1.59K bought Yes and $7.42K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Gabrielborne with 2.7K shares; the largest No position is MisTKy with 2.8K. Ten wallets hold 57.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 3 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | 7.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MisTKy | No | 2.8K |
| Gabrielborne | Yes | 2.66K |
| Valid-Platter | Yes | 1.99K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/flavio-bolsonaro-charged-or-arrested-by-october-31-20261001003357876
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
| mpstire-lutuwar |
| No |
| 1.76K |
| Peupo012 | Yes | 1.56K |
| Cobalt Sphinx AB2C | No | 1.14K |
| chessplayer | No | 1.09K |
| 1nvoker1 | No | 1.02K |
| Quarrelsome-Sycamore | No | 647.18 |
| borti123 | Yes | 646.84 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
