Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 14.5% on 5 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 58 daily closes on record from 5 May 2026 to 1 Jul 2026, the highest close was 14.5% on 5 May 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 28 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 7.5% on 6 May 2026. $8.9K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 5:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 58 points, 5 May 2026 – 1 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 May 2026 | 14.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Fickle-Grade | Yes | 189.86 |
| Big-Jackal-Pepper | Yes | 166.67 |
| keybo | Yes | 146.2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice. Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fetterman-leaves-the-democrats-by-june-30
| Yes |
| 121.8 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| Royal Harbor 217A | Yes | 59 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| Likable-Format | Yes | 30 |
| misterwilly | Yes | 20 |
| Kronosssss | Yes | 14 |
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