Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 88.5%. Yes opened at 20% on 1 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 152 daily closes on record from 1 Apr 2026 to 16 Sep 2026 (17 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 88.5% on 15 Sep 2026 and the lowest 11% on 2 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 50.5% on 29 Aug 2026. $1.91M traded over the market's life.
563 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 152 points, 1 Apr 2026 – 16 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2026 | 20.0% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | 88.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| novv25 | No | 76.97K |
| Naughtyboy | No | 76.74K |
| mmmppp333 | No | 35.1K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-by
| junypchome | No | 11.59K |
| bashful55 | No | 10.57K |
| Bold Falcon AF4C | No | 9.85K |
| Zilong | No | 9.65K |
| ENTG | No | 9.09K |
| Cobalt Falcon 6C92 | Yes | 8.1K |
| verylucky | No | 7.31K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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