Analytics
Resolved No on 29 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 61.5% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 132 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 28 Jul 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 84.5% on 2 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 81% on 1 Mar 2026. $579.14K traded over the market's life.
178 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 30, 6:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 132 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 28 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 61.5% |
| 28 Jul 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jane85 | Yes | 108.31K |
| jorgesegui33 | Yes | 92.7K |
| Bright Atlas 8A4A | Yes | 18.52K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629
| dorcas510 | Yes | 18.1K |
| 6515616 | Yes | 13.83K |
| Slushy-Trigger | Yes | 9.24K |
| fafafafafafafafsadasdq | Yes | 7.34K |
| byebyeludka | Yes | 5.43K |
| prospermarket | Yes | 4.27K |
| Useful-Gravy | Yes | 3.79K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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