Analytics
Yes is at 1.7%, down 8.3 points from 10% when the market opened on 8 Dec 2025.
Across the 304 daily closes on record from 8 Dec 2025 to 25 Oct 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 10% on 8 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.7% on 10 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.8%; a month before, 1.6%. Its largest one-day move was 6.2 points down, to 3.9% on 9 Dec 2025.
$185.46K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $39.78K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $93.61 bought Yes and $7.86K bought No; the largest was a $1.75K sell of No at 97.3¢.
The largest Yes position is artofinvesting with 4K shares; the largest No position is 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 with 3.2K. Ten wallets hold 62% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 7:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 304 points, 8 Dec 2025 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Dec 2025 | 10.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 1.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| artofinvesting | Yes | 4.03K |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 3.16K |
| 757677 | No | 1.52K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/eu-dissolves-before-2027
| MPIL | Yes | 1.4K |
| Lan-U | Yes | 1.28K |
| freemath | No | 1.16K |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 823.05 |
| Alert-Fob | Yes | 729.52 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 713.78 |
| Krass | No | 679.44 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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