Analytics
Yes is at 0.7%, down 3.4 points from 4% when the market opened on 11 Feb 2026.
The high was 5.2% on 5 Mar 2026 and the low 0.7% on 16 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 0.9%; a month ago, 1.1%.
$50.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $17.94K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $146.79 bought Yes and $7.47K bought No; the largest was a $1.12K sell of No at 96.8¢.
The largest Yes position is Taurusss with 2.9K shares; the largest No position is RBax with 3.1K. Ten wallets hold 79.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 74 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 19, 6:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 230 points, 11 Feb 2026 – 19 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2026 | 4.0% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 0.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RBax | No | 3.11K |
| Taurusss | Yes | 2.9K |
| Sure-Footed-Webpage | Yes | 1.76K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/epstein-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31
| BigT666999 |
| Yes |
| 1.07K |
| ArbitrageTaker | No | 1.01K |
| Krass | No | 861.52 |
| WanderingImpulse | Yes | 735.73 |
| sulfaterx | No | 700 |
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 582.69 |
| RizkyMuda | Yes | 404.61 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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