Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 26 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 38 daily closes on record from 26 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 51.5% on 26 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 21% on 4 Dec 2025. $485.46K traded over the market's life.
60 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 8:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 38 points, 26 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2025 | 51.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bink_7 | Yes | 16.65K |
| Rafal001558 | Yes | 600.01 |
| tailevent | Yes | 600 |
| simplystupid188 | Yes | 576.31 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits which have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025. A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify. If the bill is signed into law before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes," regardless of when it takes effect. The primary source of resolution for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/enhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025
| publiusval | Yes | 465 |
| puravida | Yes | 402 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 367 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 342 |
| Poor-Theft | Yes | 319.02 |
| kamarat | Yes | 300 |
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