Analytics
Yes is at 50%, up 29 points from 21.5% when the market opened on 27 Oct 2026.
Across the 4 daily closes on record from 27 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 21.5% on 27 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 50% on 30 Oct 2026.
90-114 is the favourite of the 9 outcomes in “Elon Musk # tweets October 29 - October 31, 2026?”, ahead of 115-139 at 22%.
$10.5K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $13.89K since listing. The order book holds $4.6K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 352 trades, $2.81K bought Yes and $2.19K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Mei-ji with 8.2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 23.4K. Ten wallets hold 82.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 27 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | 21.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 23.4K |
| Mei-ji | Yes | 8.24K |
| Kaiji123 | Yes | 3.45K |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 29 12:00 PM ET to October 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-29-october-31-2026
| Sugarina |
| Yes |
| 3K |
| RickRockRick | Yes | 2.9K |
| DPjackman | Yes | 1.04K |
| Goating | Yes | 729.85 |
| Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | Yes | 606.23 |
| dddtrips | Yes | 595.63 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 507.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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