Analytics
Yes is at 22.5%, up 12 points from 10.5% when the market opened on 28 Oct 2026.
Across the 4 daily closes on record from 28 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026, the highest close was 22% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 30 Oct 2026. The current quote, 22.5%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 22% on 30 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 22% on 30 Oct 2026.
115-139 ranks second of the 9 outcomes in “Elon Musk # tweets October 29 - October 31, 2026?”. 90-114 leads at 53%; 65-89 is at 17%.
$10.34K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $11.82K since listing. The order book holds $5.85K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 231 trades, $918.31 bought Yes and $2.74K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Mei-ji with 8.2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 23.4K. Ten wallets hold 88.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 28 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 10.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 22.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 23.37K |
| Mei-ji | Yes | 8.24K |
| Kaiji123 | Yes | 3.48K |
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 29 12:00 PM ET to October 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-october-29-october-31-2026
| Sugarina |
| Yes |
| 3K |
| RickRockRick | Yes | 2.9K |
| zion303 | Yes | 815.2 |
| triple-purple | Yes | 632.22 |
| mcsg | Yes | 598.61 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 507.11 |
| ComradeCat | Yes | 501.16 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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