What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 1 Jun 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model by DeepSeek has a higher arena score than all OpenAI models on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) at any point by May 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the arena score must be higher - if it ties with the best OpenAI arena score it will not count. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

27 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 20, 1:55 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/deepseek-better-than-all-openai-models-before-june) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June?

Market referencedeepseek-better-than-all-openai-models-before-juneUpdated Jan 20, 2026 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Jun 1, 2025 UTCchinaai

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$51.9K

Resolved

Settled

Jun 1, 2025 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Jan 20, 2026 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jan 20, 2026 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

95%

Yes / No shares

5.55K / 52.6

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

406

Loaded notional

$14.59K

No buy at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Jun 1, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

125

Move

-42 pts

Range

0.4% - 43.0%

Jan 28, 12:00 AM UTC to Jun 1, 12:00 AM UTC

TradesRecent market trade tape linked back into trader pages.

Full tapeCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Trader	Side	Outcome	Price	Shares	Time
MAGA.MUSK	buy	No	99.9%	81.91	Jun 1, 4:15 AM UTC
MAGA.MUSK	buy	No

Topic room

Every related market on one live board

Best AI Model oddsWhich company will have the best AI model at the end of this month?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 1 Jun 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model by DeepSeek has a higher arena score than all OpenAI models on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) at any point by May 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the arena score must be higher - if it ties with the best OpenAI arena score it will not count. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Side

Outcome

Price

Time

MAGA.MUSK

buy

99.9%

81.91

Jun 1, 4:15 AM UTC

MAGA.MUSK

buy