Analytics
Yes is at 1.7%, down 3.8 points from 5.5% when the market opened on 3 Jul 2026.
Across the 112 daily closes on record from 3 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 5.5% on 3 Jul 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.7%; a month before, 3.2%.
$4.68K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $814.42, with a 0.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 167 trades, $24.92 bought Yes and $2.72K bought No.
The largest Yes position is DREAMBIG. with 521 shares; the largest No position is Alegrandebig with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 94.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 112 points, 3 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2026 | 5.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 1.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Alegrandebig | No | 1.22K |
| DREAMBIG. | Yes | 521.37 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 300 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/dario-amodei-arrested-by-december-31-20260702002059924
| GTOrski1 |
| No |
| 271.65 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 235.96 |
| qcp14 | Yes | 174.74 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 166.48 |
| aviato | No | 75 |
| title1 | Yes | 50.93 |
| po-ly28-test-user6 | Yes | 44.79 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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