Analytics
Yes is at 7%, down 31 points from 37.5% when the market opened on 24 Apr 2026.
Across the 185 daily closes on record from 24 Apr 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37.5% on 24 Apr 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 19 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 7%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 6.5% on 25 Apr 2026.
$7.81K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $600.25, with a 6.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 59 trades, $259.53 bought Yes and $429.4 bought No; the largest was a $1.35K sell of No at 90.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Royal Harbor 217A with 122 shares; the largest No position is justme003 with 220. Ten wallets hold 97.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 185 points, 24 Apr 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Apr 2026 | 37.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 7.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| justme003 | No | 220.03 |
| Royal Harbor 217A | Yes | 122.07 |
| DFK | No | 107.45 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if D4vd (a.k.a. David Anthony Burke) is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If D4vd is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If D4vd is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting D4vd to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/d4vd-released-from-custody-in-2026
| Dr.PNL |
| Yes |
| 95.42 |
| Emerald Pulse CAA7 | Yes | 37.5 |
| daroghi | Yes | 30 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 22.72 |
| JusPA | Yes | 20.83 |
| TerranSupremacy | Yes | 13.33 |
| perepuk | No | 7.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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