Analytics
Yes is at 45%, down 1.5 points from 46.5% when the market opened on 23 Jul 2026.
Across the 96 daily closes on record from 23 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 54.5% on 6 Sep 2026 and the lowest 27% on 31 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 45.5%; a month before, 43.5%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 52.5% on 1 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…?”.
$340.99 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.13K since listing. The order book holds $426.09, with a 22.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 98 trades, $547.48 bought Yes and $1.64K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Viserys with 243 shares; the largest No position is Flamboyant-Warming with 147. Ten wallets hold 92.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 96 points, 23 Jul 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | 46.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 45.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Viserys | Yes | 243.12 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 147 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | No | 97.04 |
HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors. This market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress. A qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way. A qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement. Tariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions. Only tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. Coverage of only a subset or end use (e.g., wind-turbine or data-center cable only), additions limited to sister line 8544.49.3080, investigation steps, reports, proposals, or announcements without a signed operative instrument, one chamber passage, instruments whose only effect is a 0% rate or an exemption, and tariffs under any other authority (e.g., Section 301, IEEPA, AD/CVD, reciprocal) will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/copper-cable-hit-with-secpt-232-tariffs-by-20260721191458000
| ilovecarrots |
| Yes |
| 69.9 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | No | 50 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 46 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 41.63 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 40 |
| flexer78 | No | 37.31 |
| Cobalt Quasar 2960 | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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