Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 20 points from 25.5% when the market opened on 28 Mar 2026.
Across the 194 daily closes on record from 28 Mar 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25.5% on 28 Mar 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 12 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 22% on 3 May 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Clavicular sentenced to prison by...?”.
$97.98K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $7.18K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.87K bought Yes and $7.33K bought No; the largest was a $1.73K buy of No at 88.0¢.
The largest Yes position is FishPoweredTrading with 3.5K shares; the largest No position is Gdub with 3.4K. Ten wallets hold 72.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 194 points, 28 Mar 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Mar 2026 | 25.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FishPoweredTrading | Yes | 3.51K |
| illumination | Yes | 3.49K |
| Gdub | No | 3.4K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Clavicular is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.” If at any point all charges against Clavicular for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/clavicular-sentenced-to-prison-114
| DapperChapper |
| No |
| 3K |
| i400 | No | 1.8K |
| troim | Yes | 1.74K |
| Aaaaaguess | Yes | 1.67K |
| Odysseus7 | No | 1.26K |
| Joedogg | Yes | 1.25K |
| yen4u | No | 1.08K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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