Analytics
Yes is at 21%, down 6.5 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 26 Sep 2026.
Across the 30 daily closes on record from 26 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 32% on 4 Oct 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 27 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 20.5%; a month before, 10.5%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 32% on 4 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Clavicular sentenced to prison by...?”.
$18.9 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $699.98, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is PK123 with 9 shares; the largest No position is tiongbu with 9.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 26 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | 27.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 21.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2027 or until Clavicular is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.” If at any point all charges against Clavicular for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/clavicular-sentenced-to-prison-114
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