Analytics
Yes is at 6%, down 20 points from 25.5% when the market opened on 28 Mar 2026.
The high was 25.5% on 28 Mar 2026 and the low 5.5% on 12 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 6%; a month ago, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 22% on 3 May 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Clavicular sentenced to prison by...?”.
$97.46K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $7K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.1K bought Yes and $7.35K bought No; the largest was a $1.73K buy of No at 88.0¢.
The largest Yes position is FishPoweredTrading with 3.5K shares; the largest No position is Gdub with 3.4K. Ten wallets hold 70.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 78 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 15, 12:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 184 points, 28 Mar 2026 – 15 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Mar 2026 | 25.5% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 6.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FishPoweredTrading | Yes | 3.51K |
| Gdub | No | 3.4K |
| DapperChapper | No | 3K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Clavicular is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.” If at any point all charges against Clavicular for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/clavicular-sentenced-to-prison-114
| illumination |
| Yes |
| 2.98K |
| i400 | No | 1.8K |
| troim | Yes | 1.75K |
| Aaaaaguess | Yes | 1.67K |
| Odysseus7 | No | 1.26K |
| Joedogg | Yes | 1.25K |
| yen4u | No | 1.08K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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