Analytics
Yes is at 17.5%, down 10 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 10 Oct 2026.
Across the 14 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 27.5% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 17 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9.5%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 21% on 21 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “China coup attempt by...?”.
$26.83 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $269.52, with a 27.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Basilomo with 10 shares; the largest No position is First-Node with 5.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 12:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 27.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 18.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Basilomo | Yes | 10.26 |
| First-Node | No | 5 |
| ElectricSamurai | No | 5 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/china-coup-attempt-before-2027
| Kulborg |
| Yes |
| 1.04 |
| Bright Atlas 0676 | No | 1.04 |
| AJSV | No | 0.27 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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