Analytics
Yes is at 4.3%, down 4.2 points from 8.5% when the market opened on 14 Nov 2025.
Across the 341 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 12% on 15 Nov 2025 and the lowest 2.3% on 7 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.5%; a month before, 4.4%. Its largest one-day move was 5.3 points down, to 2.9% on 13 Jan 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “China coup attempt by...?”.
$98.06 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $166.14K since listing. The order book holds $45.74K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $427.69 bought Yes and $9.03K bought No; the largest was a $1.21K buy of No at 96.5¢.
The largest Yes position is PP4503 with 5.6K shares; the largest No position is xcnstrategy with 6.1K. Ten wallets hold 44.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 1:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 341 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 8.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 4.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xcnstrategy | No | 6.13K |
| PP4503 | Yes | 5.57K |
| Qannson | Yes | 2.54K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/china-coup-attempt-before-2027
| HAOI |
| No |
| 2.19K |
| Senorpo | Yes | 1.82K |
| Daviddu0813 | No | 1.73K |
| Concrete-Foreigner | Yes | 1.55K |
| not-gOaTbAnKeR | Yes | 1.4K |
| gambaFanta | Yes | 1.3K |
| redwallstreet | No | 1.21K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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