Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 55% on 1 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 124 daily closes on record from 1 Mar 2025 to 2 Jul 2025, the highest close was 60% on 9 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 2 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 41.5% on 13 May 2025. $15.44K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 124 points, 1 Mar 2025 – 2 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Mar 2025 | 55.0% |
| 2 Jul 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 484 |
| TheInferno1536 | Yes | 36.27 |
| WizzleGizzle | Yes | 8.2 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new tariffs on imports into Canada from China go into effect for any amount of time between February 28, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into Canada) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/canada-tariffs-on-china-in-effect-before-july
| Yes |
| 7 |
| screebodeebo | No | 5.68 |
| Kev17 | Yes | 5.17 |
| Cartertsu | Yes | 4.35 |
| 0xMehr | Yes | 3.64 |
| fenticing | Yes | 1.82 |
| SYSY.CN | No | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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