Analytics
Resolved Yes on 26 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 73%. Yes opened at 76.5% on 7 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 7 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 91% on 13 Oct 2026 and the lowest 55% on 20 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 55% on 20 Oct 2026. $20.99K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 27, 11:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 7 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026 | 76.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 73.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Careful-West | No | 2.86K |
| Orange-Whistle-Shoehorn | No | 1.65K |
| Addarash | No | 247.95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
A presidential election was held in Brazil on October 4, 2026, and a runoff is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate receives 60,346,000 or more valid votes in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, breaking the record for the most votes ever received by a candidate in a Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The current record is 60,345,999 votes, received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the second round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election. Exactly 60,345,999 votes would tie, not break, the record and would resolve this market to "No". This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-any-candidate-gets-most-votes-ever
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| No |
| 108.94 |
| only-no | Yes | 100 |
| frontiertrade | No | 80 |
| crypto-basenji | No | 50 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
| Fihdrzgdd | No | 45.29 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 20 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
