Analytics
Resolved No on 4 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 59.5% on 30 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 30 Apr 2025 to 4 May 2025, the highest close was 59.5% on 30 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 4 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 0.3% on 4 May 2025. $124.81K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 5, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 30 Apr 2025 – 4 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2025 | 59.5% |
| 4 May 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BoeJidenBets | Yes | 13.16 |
| ksquare | Yes | 0.01 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 0.01 |
| thepolwinner | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if no single party or declared pre-election alliance wins a majority of seats seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 Australian federal election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Liberal and National Parties (the Liberal–National Coalition) will be treated as a single party for the purposes of this market, unless the alliance is officially dissolved before election day. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Australian government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/australia-election-results-in-a-hung-parliament
| TYriplecheese | No | 0.01 |
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