
Yes is at 17%, down 11 points from 28.5% when the market opened on 13 Oct 2026.
Across the 11 daily closes on record from 13 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 20 Oct 2026 and the lowest 17% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 35.5%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 51.5% on 20 Oct 2026.
$110.46 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.23K since listing. The order book holds $34.82, with a 26.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 89 trades, $214.5 bought Yes and $925.46 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 206 shares; the largest No position is sunnybank with 114. Ten wallets hold 80% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 13 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | 28.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 17.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 205.81 |
| sunnybank | No | 114.29 |
| 💰💰 | No | 100.46 |
Since July 2026, OpenAI has disclosed several incidents in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to real computer systems during training or evaluation, including the July 21 disclosure of the Hugging Face breach and the September 5 confirmation that its agents had posted to a public wiki. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic publicly discloses an incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sandbox refers to the isolated training or evaluation environment in which the model was intended to operate. Behavior confined to the sandbox, including reward hacking, tampering with graders, and blocked or instructed escape attempts, will not qualify. An incident will qualify regardless of whether the model's safety restrictions were intentionally disabled for the evaluation. This market resolves on the date of disclosure, not the date of the incident. The disclosure must concern an incident Anthropic had not previously disclosed. Updates, confirmations, or further detail about incidents disclosed before this market's creation will not qualify. The disclosure must be made through Anthropic's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, including statements to the press. Reports by third parties, including evaluators, regulators, or affected organizations, will not qualify unless Anthropic confirms the incident. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/anthropic-reports-another-ai-sandbox-escape-byptptpt-20261012
| tradetosurvive1 |
| Yes |
| 62.5 |
| Lone-Macrofauna | No | 61.8 |
| zhukov26 | No | 45 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 40 |
| probability | Yes | 40 |
| Fihdrzgdd | No | 40 |
| sherri71 | No | 26.38 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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