Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 15% on 20 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 228 daily closes on record from 20 May 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 15% on 20 May 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 30 Dec 2025. $97.48K traded over the market's life.
65 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 228 points, 20 May 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 May 2025 | 15.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| back-in-whack | Yes | 5.84K |
| cowcat | Yes | 2.79K |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 1K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between May 19 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-us-debt-downgrade-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Spectrum | Yes | 400 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 378 |
| jontra | Yes | 322.22 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 301 |
| fead | Yes | 300 |
| lissartter | Yes | 250 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 159 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
