Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 18% on 27 Jul 2026. Before it settled, the high was 18% on 27 Jul 2026 and the low 0.1% on 31 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 7% on 7 Aug 2026. $145.71K traded over the market's life.
46 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 4:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Jul 2026 – 1 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2026 | 18.0% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Fearless-Misnomer | Yes | 1.29K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 1K |
| norealtime | Yes | 715.16 |
NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-nato-article-4-byptptpt-20260726214235871
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 395.15 |
| Merry-Volleyball | Yes | 150 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 132.5 |
| sanduspace | Yes | 100 |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 100 |
| Verifiable-Video | No | 55 |
| PPMT | Yes | 50.92 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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