Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Amazon 2026 capex above $220B?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Amazon 2026 capex above ___?”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
Trading is open until Apr 30, 2027. As of Sep 15, 5:05 AM, Yes trades at 63.0¢, a 63.0% implied chance, $2.18K traded in the last 24 hours, $177.47 resting in the order book, a 24.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 25 hourly price points from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 15, 2026 (Yes between 62.5% and 65.5%); 18 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 94.9% of the loaded shares; 104 recent public fills from 40 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon's Purchases of Property and Equipment (capital expenditures) for the full year of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Amazon's official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings (including the Annual Report on Form 10-K). If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Capital expenditures are defined as purchases of property and equipment as reported in Amazon's consolidated statements of cash flows under investing activities, consistent with how Amazon has historically disclosed this figure. Alternate metrics that differ in definition or scope will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/amazon-2026-capex-above-220b
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 81.8 |
| Quiet Meteor 2709 | Yes | 65.11 |
| AJSV | No | 63.81 |
| Haradwaith | No | 40.2 |
| tinman2 | Yes | 20.1 |
| pppnn | No | 20 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 18.65 |
| 48xsds | No | 5.66 |
| asasa1 | No | 4.78 |
| Multiversos | No | 4.65 |