Analytics
Yes is at 71%, up 21 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 24 Apr 2026.
Across the 184 daily closes on record from 24 Apr 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 93.5% on 13 Sep 2026 and the lowest 22% on 15 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 78%; a month before, 71.5%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 53% on 30 Jun 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Amazon 2026 capex above ___?”.
$3.05K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $197.97, with a 28.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 134 trades, $747.14 bought Yes and $194.04 bought No.
The largest Yes position is clazzy1 with 199 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 225. Ten wallets hold 97.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 May 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 184 points, 24 Apr 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Apr 2026 | 49.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 71.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 225.09 |
| clazzy1 | Yes | 199.14 |
| tilazczz | Yes | 127.2 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon's Purchases of Property and Equipment (capital expenditures) for the full year of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Amazon's official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings (including the Annual Report on Form 10-K). If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Capital expenditures are defined as purchases of property and equipment as reported in Amazon's consolidated statements of cash flows under investing activities, consistent with how Amazon has historically disclosed this figure. Alternate metrics that differ in definition or scope will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/amazon-2026-capex-above
| LornaPredicts |
| No |
| 59.64 |
| Noonoo123 | No | 50 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 40 |
| SmartBoyBilly | Yes | 20 |
| fresh | Yes | 20 |
| TerranSupremacy | No | 15 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 7.42 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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