Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?” is a weather prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Feb 1, 2027 UTC. As of Oct 2, 8:47 AM UTC, Yes trades at 1.3¢, a 1.3% implied chance, $825.62K traded in the last 24 hours, $33.84K resting in the order book, a 0.5% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 264 daily price points from Dec 9, 2025 UTC to Oct 2, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.6% and 6.9%); 611 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 62.7% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 306 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 264 points · 9 Dec 2025 – 2 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Dec 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 1.3% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 29.58K |
| vk7 | Yes | 16K |
| 589985 | Yes |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/10pt0-or-above-earthquake-before-2027
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 14.67K |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 14.1K |
| BeN | No | 11.48K |
| pedro4prez | Yes | 10K |
| packling | Yes | 7.69K |
| Legal-Patriot | Yes | 5.1K |
| JLLEE91 | Yes | 5.01K |
| PontiusPilate | Yes | 5K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
