Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 85%. Yes opened at 31.5% on 26 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 26 Jul 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 55.5% on 29 Jul 2025 and the lowest 15% on 1 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 19% on 30 Jul 2025. $22.68K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 3, 12:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 26 Jul 2025 – 1 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2025 | 31.5% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 15.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on August 1, 2025 is greater than 4.40% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/10-year-treasury-yield-4pt4-friday-516
| jprates31 | Yes | 33.24 |
| mimi2025 | Yes | 22.31 |
| Musashi12 | Yes | 20.83 |
| Raikuma | Yes | 19 |
| frankthetank4 | Yes | 15 |
| xuser00731e7uy890mw | Yes | 8.33 |
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