Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 41 points from 50.5% when the market opened on 12 Sep 2026.
Across the 45 daily closes on record from 12 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.5% on 12 Sep 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10%; a month before, 17.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 35.5% on 13 Sep 2026.
$3.86K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $14.36K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 74 trades, $115.85 bought Yes and $2.37K bought No; the largest was a $1.62K buy of No at 85.4¢.
The largest Yes position is RememberAmalek with 1K shares; the largest No position is sabsabinxz with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 94.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 45 points, 12 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | 50.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sabsabinxz | No | 1.87K |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 1.01K |
| Phenium | Yes | 700 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/0-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-on-any-date-by
| Witty-Birch |
| No |
| 208 |
| Diplopia2 | Yes | 200 |
| PMplayer | Yes | 158.09 |
| adenakoz1 | No | 138 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 127.17 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 101 |
| jollyblue | No | 60 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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