classified

The cohort performance summary keeps its original period. These positions are a separate Polymarket observation and do not establish complete position history.

Market	Outcome	Shares	Observed price	Observed value	Position PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	178.58K	50.2%	$89.74K	+$446.45
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	178.58K	49.8%	$88.84K	-$446.45
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	84.78K	85.2%	$72.19K	+$17.85K
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	83.84K	13.5%	$11.32K	-$15.57K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	7.53K	81.5%	$6.13K	-$68.9
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	5.44K	22.5%	$1.22K	+$116.07
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	4.07K	6.5%	$264.63	-$1.49K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	3.2K	1.5%	$48	-$35.2
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?	Yes	2.76K	90.0%	$2.49K	+$45.38
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?	Yes	875.95	1.5%	$12.7	-$4.38
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	626.58	57.5%	$360.28	-$17.1
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	511.71	64.0%	$327.49	+$10.23
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	480.28	95.3%	$457.95	+$92.93
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	300	55.5%	$166.5	-$19.5
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	No	279.15	44.5%	$124.22	+$20.94
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	200	72.0%	$144	-$2
LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	15.66	99.9%	$15.64	+$4.68
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	10	95.0%	$9.5	+$1.4
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	2.88	19.5%	$0.56	+$0.13

Showing 19 of 19 returned rows. Complete provider response.