Latest trade
Mar 5, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 23, 6:29 PM UTC.
Analytics
Warm-Fedora is down $11.12 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 7 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-03-21 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Mar 5, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 23, 6:29 PM UTC.
$6.84 median trade
Its latest 15 trades covered 8 markets; 66.7% were buys. They run from Feb 25, 2026 UTC to Mar 5, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 24.53 | $0.530 | $1.35 | -$11.65 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will US or Israel strike Iran first?US | sell | 5.43 | $0.499 | $2.71 | Mar 5, 2026 UTC |
|
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-03-21 08:37 UTC
Polymarket public position response
1 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-23 18:29 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
15 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-23 18:29 UTC
polymarket positions
9 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-03-21 08:37 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $31.28 and losing ones cost $22.4 across 7 settled positions. 42.9% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $28.27 on “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” (Yes); the largest loss, $10.54 on “Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?” (No).
Its most recent trade on record was on 5 Mar 2026. It has traded 8 markets. Its open positions are worth $1.35 across 1 market.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| buy |
| 5.44 |
| $0.469 |
| $2.55 |
| Mar 2, 2026 UTC |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first?Israel | sell | 4.8 | $0.531 | $2.55 | Mar 2, 2026 UTC |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first?Israel | buy | 4.8 | $0.535 | $2.57 | Mar 2, 2026 UTC |
 Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 35.71 | $0.280 | $10 | Mar 2, 2026 UTC |
| Will France strike Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 38.14 | $0.262 | $10 | Mar 2, 2026 UTC |
 Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?Yes | sell | 25 | $0.864 | $21.6 | Feb 28, 2026 UTC |
| Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.750 | $18.75 | Feb 28, 2026 UTC |
| Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?No | sell | 25.29 | $0.176 | $4.46 | Feb 28, 2026 UTC |
| Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?No | buy | 25.3 | $0.593 | $15 | Feb 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | buy | 24.53 | $0.530 | $13 | Feb 28, 2026 UTC |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes | sell | 33.33 | $0.998 | $33.26 | Feb 28, 2026 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 33.33 | $0.150 | $5 | Feb 27, 2026 UTC |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Yes | buy | 87.72 | $0.057 | $5 | Feb 27, 2026 UTC |
 Will Trump say "Alien" during the 2026 State of the Union address?No | buy | 36 | $0.190 | $6.84 | Feb 25, 2026 UTC |
2 of 4 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 4 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.