Analytics
Trading is closed with Yes last at 50%; no result has been reported.
Across the 52 daily closes on record from 14 Jan 2026 to 6 Mar 2026, the highest close was 71.5% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 39.4% on 1 Mar 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 58.5%; a month before, 63.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 39.4% on 1 Mar 2026.
The largest US position is drunktedkennedy with 960 shares; the largest Israel position is Jade Ledger 914A with 593. Ten wallets hold 64.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Mar 7, 1:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 52 points, 14 Jan 2026 – 6 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | 56.5% |
| 6 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| drunktedkennedy | US | 960 |
| Jade Ledger 914A | Israel | 592.89 |
| Gruesome-Anchovy | Israel | 396.06 |
| woody-max | Israel | 317.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "US" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before Israel does. If Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before the United States does, this market will resolve to "Israel". If no qualifying strike occurs by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, strikes occur simultaneously, there is ambiguity about the order of strikes, or no consensus can be reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-us-or-israel-strike-iran-first
| nielsma | Israel | 300 |
| Elikarp | US | 263.16 |
| ButterBoy | US | 242.74 |
| Azure Raven 27D2 | US | 208.06 |
| Rickytikkitok | US | 193.62 |
| Close-Gamebird | Israel | 160.51 |
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