Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 2.97 | $0.842 | $2.86 | +$0.36 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | buy | 44.12 | $0.068 | $3 | Apr 8, 2026 |
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Conventional-Physics is a public Polymarket wallet indexed by Vultax, ranked #1,257,467 in the Observed 80K cohort. As of the latest observation the record shows -$0.71 observed lifetime PnL, 33 distinct markets, 28 resolved positions, a 46.4% win rate on resolved positions.
Rank, total PnL and observed volume come from one accepted snapshot of Polymarket's public leaderboard, so they are consistent with each other and with every other profile in the cohort. Open positions, the chart and recent trades are separate live observations with their own timestamps. A figure Vultax could not observe is left out rather than shown as zero, and nothing on this page is investment advice or a return forecast.
Public profile: polymarket.com/profile/0x9bda7d8925e9135b2380825d25c189013d3ce342
Nine stops, one per figure. Each says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads for this wallet in the accepted snapshot.
Position in Vultax's Observed 80K cohort: 80,000 public Polymarket wallets ordered by observed lifetime profit in one accepted leaderboard snapshot. A rank is only comparable inside that snapshot.
Observed lifetime profit and loss for the wallet, realized and unrealized combined, as reported in the accepted snapshot. It is a record of what happened, not a forecast of what comes next.
| Yes |
| 44.12 |
| $0.068 |
| $0.84 |
| -$2.16 |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 26.32 | $0.038 | $0.3 | -$0.7 |
| buy |
| 26.32 |
| $0.038 |
| $1 |
| Apr 5, 2026 |
 Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5?Yes | sell | 31.14 | $0.077 | $2.39 | Mar 14, 2026 |
 Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?Yes | sell | 5.4 | $0.510 | $2.75 | Mar 14, 2026 |
| Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?Yes | buy | 5.41 | $0.370 | $2 | Mar 13, 2026 |
 Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.240 | $2.4 | Mar 13, 2026 |
 Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Yes | sell | 1.41 | $0.680 | $0.96 | Mar 13, 2026 |
 Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?Yes | sell | 1.66 | $0.580 | $0.96 | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?Yes | sell | 47.68 | $0.034 | $1.64 | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?Yes | buy | 1.67 | $0.600 | $1 | Mar 12, 2026 |
 Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.110 | $1.1 | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Yes | buy | 1.42 | $0.705 | $1 | Mar 12, 2026 |
 US recession by end of 2026?No | sell | 7.05 | $0.681 | $4.8 | Mar 12, 2026 |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | sell | 5.87 | $0.710 | $4.17 | Mar 12, 2026 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | sell | 3.26 | $0.441 | $1.44 | Mar 12, 2026 |
 Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes | buy | 16.67 | $0.060 | $1 | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No | buy | 1.16 | $0.860 | $1 | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | buy | 3.27 | $0.459 | $1.5 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.200 | $1 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.100 | $1 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.200 | $1 | Mar 11, 2026 |
 Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?Yes | buy | 47.68 | $0.031 | $1.5 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5?Yes | buy | 11.62 | $0.129 | $1.5 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 5?Yes | buy | 19.53 | $0.128 | $2.5 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| US recession by end of 2026?No | buy | 7.05 | $0.709 | $5 | Mar 11, 2026 |
 Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes | sell | 6.25 | $0.220 | $1.38 | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.240 | $1.5 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes | buy | 2.03 | $0.740 | $1.5 | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No | buy | 1.81 | $0.830 | $1.5 | Mar 9, 2026 |
 Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ETUp | sell | 2.29 | $0.130 | $0.3 | Feb 22, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ETUp | buy | 2.26 | $0.430 | $0.97 | Feb 22, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ETDown | sell | 2.46 | $0.470 | $1.16 | Feb 22, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ETDown | buy | 2.43 | $0.400 | $0.97 | Feb 22, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ETUp | sell | 4.13 | $0.070 | $0.29 | Feb 22, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ETUp | buy | 4.1 | $0.240 | $0.98 | Feb 22, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ETUp | buy | 1.19 | $0.830 | $0.99 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ETUp | buy | 3.38 | $0.290 | $0.98 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ETUp | buy | 3.38 | $0.290 | $0.98 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ETUp | buy | 1.28 | $0.770 | $0.98 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ETUp | buy | 8.29 | $0.120 | $0.99 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ETUp | buy | 12.63 | $0.079 | $1 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ETDown | buy | 11.07 | $0.090 | $1 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ETDown | buy | 49.99 | $0.020 | $1 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ETUp | sell | 1.22 | $0.890 | $1.09 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ETUp | buy | 1.22 | $0.810 | $0.99 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | sell | 1.11 | $0.630 | $0.7 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ETUp | buy | 100 | $0.010 | $1 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ETDown | sell | 2 | $0.350 | $0.7 | Feb 21, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ETDown | buy | 1.98 | $0.490 | $0.97 | Feb 21, 2026 |
Lifetime dollar volume the wallet has traded in the same snapshot. Profit read next to volume shows how much return each traded dollar earned.
Value of the wallet's open positions at the profile observation, priced at current marks. Zero can mean the wallet holds nothing open, or that no open value was observed.
Share of resolved positions that closed in profit within the available sample. A high win rate with a small profit usually means many small wins and a few large losses.
Realized winning markets summed against realized losing markets. The split shows whether profit came from many small wins or from a few big calls.
Total losses as a share of total gains in the available sample. Lower means less of the profit was given back; a value above 100% means the wallet lost more than it won.
Distinct markets the wallet has traded, and how many of its positions have resolved. Breadth tells you whether a record is one lucky call or a habit.
How many provider fill rows this view loaded and when the snapshot was taken. Vultax stamps every figure with its observation time instead of presenting an old number as live.