Analytics
The cohort performance summary keeps its original period. These positions are a separate Polymarket observation and do not establish complete position history.
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.56 | $0.641 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 1.92 |
| $0.440 |
| $0.84 |
| Apr 2, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes | buy | 1.92 | $0.520 | $1 | Mar 29, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | sell | 2.38 | $0.350 | $0.83 | Mar 29, 2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | buy | 2.38 | $0.420 | $1 | Mar 22, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes | sell | 1.88 | $0.470 | $0.88 | Mar 22, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes | buy | 1.89 | $0.530 | $1 | Mar 14, 2026 |
 Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ETDown | buy | 2.37 | $0.410 | $0.97 | Mar 8, 2026 |
 S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26?Up | buy | 2 | $0.500 | $1 | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ETUp | buy | 2.53 | $0.384 | $0.97 | Feb 22, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ETUp | sell | 1.09 | $0.970 | $1.06 | Feb 15, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ETUp | buy | 1.1 | $0.910 | $1 | Feb 15, 2026 |
 Government shutdown on Saturday?Yes | buy | 1.52 | $0.660 | $1 | Feb 8, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 2.22 | $0.430 | $0.95 | Feb 8, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 2.22 | $0.450 | $1 | Feb 1, 2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday?No | buy | 4.35 | $0.230 | $1 | Jan 25, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 2.38 | $0.410 | $0.98 | Jan 25, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 2.38 | $0.420 | $1 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?No | sell | 1.72 | $0.580 | $1 | Jan 17, 2026 |
 ICE shooter charged by March 31?No | sell | 1.44 | $0.730 | $1.05 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| ICE shooter charged by March 31?No | buy | 1.45 | $0.690 | $1 | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?No | buy | 1.72 | $0.580 | $1 | Jan 3, 2026 |
 Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Darts Championship?No | buy | 2.56 | $0.390 | $1 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes | buy | 2.27 | $0.440 | $1 | Dec 21, 2025 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 2.5 | $0.190 | $0.48 | Dec 21, 2025 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 2.5 | $0.400 | $1 | Dec 14, 2025 |
 Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?No | sell | 1.96 | $0.620 | $1.22 | Dec 14, 2025 |
 Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?Yes | sell | 3.12 | $0.080 | $0.25 | Dec 7, 2025 |
 Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?No | sell | 3.44 | $0.890 | $3.06 | Dec 7, 2025 |
| Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?No | buy | 1.96 | $0.510 | $1 | Dec 7, 2025 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?Yes | buy | 3.13 | $0.320 | $1 | Nov 29, 2025 |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Yes | sell | 1.85 | $0.640 | $1.18 | Nov 29, 2025 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Yes | buy | 1.85 | $0.540 | $1 | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?No | buy | 3.45 | $0.290 | $1 | Nov 11, 2025 |
 Will McDonald’s (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?No | buy | 5 | $0.200 | $1 | Nov 5, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?Yes | buy | 1.01 | $0.995 | $1 | Oct 29, 2025 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?No | buy | 23.81 | $0.042 | $1 | Oct 22, 2025 |
 Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?Yes | buy | 2.23 | $0.448 | $1 | Oct 18, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 10+ times during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7?Yes | buy | 1.32 | $0.760 | $1 | Oct 7, 2025 |
 Will NIKE (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 1.22 | $0.820 | $1 | Sep 30, 2025 |
 Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31?Yes | buy | 2.5 | $0.400 | $1 | Sep 23, 2025 |
 Will Eric Adams drop out?No | buy | 2.5 | $0.400 | $1 | Sep 20, 2025 |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No | buy | 2.35 | $0.850 | $2 | Sep 19, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?Yes | buy | 11.76 | $0.170 | $2 | Sep 19, 2025 |