Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 3 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 96.5% on 13 Feb 2026 and the low 0.5% on 15 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 83 points down, to 13.8% on 14 Feb 2026. $13.55M traded over the market's life.
679 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 16, 8:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 3 Feb 2026 – 15 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2026 | 20.5% |
| 15 Feb 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tetrose | Yes | 1M |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 76.2K |
| hollyber | Yes | 50K |
| cobritoooo | Yes | 34.03K |
| hbbolt | Yes | 33.66K |
| Rapid Meteor 44DC | Yes | 26.01K |
| Zappytapps | Yes | 18.55K |
| 881112 | Yes | 13.89K |
| joeburrow11 | Yes | 13.43K |
| easycopy | Yes | 12.38K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces a new federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A continuation, without any reopening, of the partial government shutdown which began on January 31, 2026, will not qualify. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-us-government-shutdown-by-february-14
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