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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 9.11 | $0.110 | $1 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 6.75 |
| $0.590 |
| $3.98 |
| Aug 1, 2026 |
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes | sell | 8.13 | $0.520 | $4.23 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes | sell | 6.76 | $0.490 | $3.31 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes | sell | 6.25 | $0.140 | $0.88 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes | sell | 8.64 | $0.510 | $4.41 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No | sell | 9 | $0.440 | $3.96 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes | sell | 8.13 | $0.560 | $4.55 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?No | sell | 6.41 | $0.810 | $5.19 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Yes | sell | 6 | $0.280 | $1.68 | Aug 1, 2026 |
 Will Yum Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 7.94 | $0.630 | $5 | Jul 25, 2026 |
 Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.210 | $1.26 | Jul 25, 2026 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?No | buy | 6 | $0.270 | $1.62 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?No | buy | 6.56 | $0.250 | $1.64 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 38%-40%?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.300 | $2.1 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.430 | $3.44 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No | buy | 7.11 | $0.660 | $4.69 | Jul 20, 2026 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of July 20 2026?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.310 | $2.17 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?No | buy | 7 | $0.310 | $2.17 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.310 | $2.17 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.300 | $2.1 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.240 | $1.5 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.210 | $1.26 | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.210 | $1.26 | Jul 17, 2026 |
 Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.390 | $2.73 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" during Speech to the Nation?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.710 | $5.04 | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.800 | $4.86 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 15?Up | buy | 9.18 | $0.500 | $4.59 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.710 | $5.04 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.300 | $2.1 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.290 | $1.74 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.75 | $0.730 | $4.93 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No | buy | 7.92 | $0.640 | $5.07 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.210 | $1.26 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No | buy | 9.17 | $0.530 | $4.86 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.770 | $4.68 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No | buy | 8.14 | $0.580 | $4.72 | Jul 10, 2026 |
 Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?Yes | buy | 6.59 | $0.730 | $4.81 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.800 | $4.86 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No | buy | 7.51 | $0.650 | $4.88 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?No | buy | 7.09 | $0.702 | $4.98 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.05 | $0.298 | $2.1 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.08 | $0.760 | $4.62 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 6?Up | buy | 7.5 | $0.360 | $2.7 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.25 Week of July 6 2026?No | buy | 8.8 | $0.450 | $3.96 | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?No | buy | 6.41 | $0.780 | $5 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?No | buy | 136.36 | $0.011 | $1.5 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No | buy | 9 | $0.470 | $4.23 | Jun 21, 2026 |
 Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?No | buy | 6 | $0.740 | $4.44 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 8.13 | $0.610 | $4.96 | Jun 20, 2026 |