Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Yes | sell | 20.61 | $0.004 | $0.08 | Mar 26, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 5.88 |
| $0.160 |
| $0.94 |
| Mar 12, 2026 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: KhameneiNo | sell | 10 | $0.960 | $9.6 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Yes | sell | 30.94 | $0.850 | $26.3 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes | sell | 25 | $0.790 | $19.75 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 15.11 | $0.002 | $0.03 | Feb 18, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 17.87 | $0.002 | $0.04 | Feb 18, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 41.19 | $0.002 | $0.08 | Feb 18, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?No | sell | 2.38 | $0.055 | $0.13 | Feb 18, 2026 |
 Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ETDown | buy | 1.86 | $0.520 | $0.97 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ETDown | buy | 6.1 | $0.320 | $1.95 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ETUp | buy | 4.48 | $0.220 | $0.99 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ETUp | buy | 3.26 | $0.300 | $0.98 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ETUp | buy | 2.78 | $0.350 | $0.97 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ETUp | buy | 14.34 | $0.340 | $4.87 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ETDown | sell | 14.1 | $0.510 | $7.19 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ETDown | buy | 15.76 | $0.310 | $4.89 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ETDown | buy | 13.92 | $0.350 | $4.87 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ETUp | sell | 22.89 | $0.610 | $13.96 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ETUp | buy | 9.46 | $0.310 | $2.93 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ETUp | buy | 13.15 | $0.370 | $4.86 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ETDown | sell | 11.72 | $0.590 | $6.91 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ETDown | buy | 11.55 | $0.420 | $4.85 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes | sell | 104.27 | $0.060 | $6.26 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Yes | buy | 14.81 | $0.270 | $4 | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 25 | $0.200 | $5 | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes | buy | 45.45 | $0.110 | $5 | Feb 2, 2026 |
 US government shutdown Saturday?No | buy | 4 | $0.250 | $1 | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 15.62 | $0.992 | $15.5 | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Yes | buy | 20.62 | $0.194 | $4 | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31?Yes | sell | 34.48 | $0.031 | $1.07 | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes | buy | 58.82 | $0.170 | $10 | Jan 27, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Ass" during WEF Address on January 21?Yes | sell | 3.7 | $0.040 | $0.15 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Khamenei" during WEF Address on January 21?Yes | sell | 15.06 | $0.020 | $0.3 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Affordability" during WEF Address on January 21?Yes | sell | 12.17 | $0.120 | $1.46 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Affordability" during WEF Address on January 21?Yes | buy | 3.85 | $0.260 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Khamenei" during WEF Address on January 21?Yes | buy | 9.18 | $0.109 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ass" during WEF Address on January 21?Yes | buy | 3.7 | $0.270 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Affordability" during WEF Address on January 21?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.480 | $4 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Khamenei" during WEF Address on January 21?Yes | buy | 5.88 | $0.170 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Boeing" during WEF Address on January 21?Yes | buy | 4.76 | $0.210 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "American Dream" during WEF Address on January 21?Yes | buy | 2.86 | $0.350 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Kiev" during NewsNation interview?Yes | sell | 12.5 | $0.360 | $4.5 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Kiev" during NewsNation interview?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.080 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Somalia" or "Somalian" during NewsNation interview?Yes | buy | 4.55 | $0.220 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Trump out as President by March 31?Yes | buy | 34.48 | $0.029 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Trump out as President before 2027?Yes | buy | 5.88 | $0.170 | $1 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No | sell | 8.19 | $0.850 | $6.96 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Will Trump and Machado handshake last 2–6 seconds?Yes | buy | 19.61 | $0.051 | $1 | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Will Trump and Machado handshake last less than 2 seconds?Yes | buy | 29 | $0.034 | $1 | Jan 16, 2026 |