Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.7%. Yes opened at 70% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 55 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 1 Mar 2026, the highest close was 85% on 4 Feb 2026 and the lowest 3.4% on 1 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 69 points down, to 3.4% on 1 Mar 2026. $1.05M traded over the market's life.
244 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 55 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 1 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 70.0% |
| 1 Mar 2026 | 3.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Melody626 | Yes | 30.19K |
| Even-Barge | Yes | 20K |
| Extra-Large-Begonia | Yes | 11.28K |
| gopfan2 | Yes | 4.43K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran - Khamenei leaves Iran Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran: This market will resolve to "No" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time during this market’s above-specified time frame. Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Khamenei leaves Iran: This market will resolve to "No" if it is confirmed that Ali Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time during this market’s above-specified time frame. In cases where Ali Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "No". If Ali Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-khamenei
| RameZZA | Yes | 3.47K |
| cripes3 | Yes | 3.43K |
| Far-Off-Erosion | Yes | 2.5K |
| dollajayn | Yes | 1.98K |
| macanga | Yes | 1.79K |
| Elhambigzad1 | Yes | 1.53K |
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