Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | 1.08 | $0.929 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?Yes | buy | 1.05 | $0.950 | $1 | May 15, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 1.11 |
| $0.900 |
| $1 |
| May 15, 2026 |
| Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Yes | buy | 1.1 | $0.907 | $1 | May 15, 2026 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No | buy | 1.08 | $0.929 | $1 | May 15, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes | buy | 1.2 | $0.830 | $1 | May 15, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes | buy | 1.18 | $0.849 | $1 | May 15, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 5.61 | $0.974 | $5.46 | Feb 4, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 2.77 | $0.002 | $0.01 | Feb 4, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 5.4 | $0.001 | $0.01 | Feb 4, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.25 | $0.800 | $1 | Jan 25, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No | buy | 1.04 | $0.965 | $1 | Jan 25, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No | buy | 1.02 | $0.979 | $1 | Jan 25, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?No | sell | 1.66 | $0.900 | $1.49 | Dec 1, 2025 |
 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?No | sell | 1.53 | $0.873 | $1.34 | Dec 1, 2025 |
 US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?No | sell | 1.38 | $0.920 | $1.27 | Dec 1, 2025 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?No | sell | 1.26 | $0.968 | $1.22 | Dec 1, 2025 |
 Maduro out by November 30, 2025?No | buy | 1.04 | $0.960 | $1 | Nov 6, 2025 |
 Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No | buy | 1.02 | $0.985 | $1 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 2.7 | $0.370 | $1 | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 2.7 | $0.370 | $1 | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?No | buy | 1.09 | $0.920 | $1 | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18No | buy | 1.03 | $0.971 | $1 | Oct 15, 2025 |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?No | buy | 1.43 | $0.700 | $1 | Oct 15, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No | buy | 1.1 | $0.910 | $1 | Oct 15, 2025 |
 Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?No | buy | 1.49 | $0.670 | $1 | Oct 15, 2025 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.06 | $0.940 | $1 | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 5?No | buy | 1.19 | $0.840 | $1 | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 2?No | buy | 1.02 | $0.980 | $1 | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 1?No | buy | 1.02 | $0.985 | $1 | Oct 1, 2025 |
 Jimmy Kimmel hosts an episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" by September 30?No | buy | 1.06 | $0.940 | $1 | Sep 20, 2025 |
 Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?No | sell | 1.47 | $0.991 | $1.46 | Sep 20, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Putin by September 30?No | sell | 1.72 | $0.989 | $1.7 | Sep 20, 2025 |
 Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?No | sell | 1.78 | $0.990 | $1.76 | Sep 20, 2025 |
 Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?Yes | sell | 1.75 | $0.330 | $0.58 | Sep 20, 2025 |
 Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?Yes | buy | 1.62 | $0.619 | $1 | Sep 5, 2025 |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes | buy | 1.19 | $0.839 | $1 | Sep 3, 2025 |
 Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?No | buy | 1.12 | $0.890 | $1 | Sep 2, 2025 |
 Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?Yes | buy | 1.39 | $0.720 | $1 | Sep 2, 2025 |
 Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election?Yes | buy | 1.08 | $0.930 | $1 | Sep 2, 2025 |
 Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in August?No | buy | 1.78 | $0.983 | $1.75 | Aug 27, 2025 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Brazil in August?No | buy | 1.03 | $0.969 | $1 | Aug 27, 2025 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in August?No | buy | 1.04 | $0.963 | $1 | Aug 27, 2025 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in August?No | buy | 1.04 | $0.960 | $1 | Aug 27, 2025 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in August?No | buy | 1.09 | $0.919 | $1 | Aug 27, 2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by August 31?No | sell | 1.09 | $0.992 | $1.08 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?No | sell | 2.16 | $0.993 | $2.14 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?Yes | buy | 1.75 | $0.570 | $1 | Aug 23, 2025 |
 Will Elon tweet 195–209 times?Yes | buy | 26 | $0.038 | $1 | Aug 21, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 210–224 times?Yes | buy | 3.57 | $0.280 | $1 | Aug 21, 2025 |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?No | sell | 3.63 | $0.964 | $3.5 | Aug 21, 2025 |