Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 7 Oct 2025. Before it settled, the high was 28.4% on 31 Oct 2025 and the low 0.1% on 8 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 2.1% on 6 Nov 2025. $5.67M traded over the market's life.
600 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 13, 6:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 33 points · 7 Oct 2025 – 8 Nov 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2025 | 6.5% |
| 8 Nov 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.87M |
| Cookedtan | Yes | 256.33K |
| endorphins | Yes | 227.04K |
| salala72728 | Yes | 145.26K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the first day after September 30, 2025 which the U.S. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545
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