Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6?No | buy | 209.55 | $0.640 | $134.11 | Dec 2, 2024 |
 |
| buy |
| 134.11 |
| $0.976 |
| $130.89 |
| Dec 1, 2024 |
 Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?No | buy | 130.89 | $0.800 | $104.71 | Nov 26, 2024 |
 Will Jill Stein get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate?Yes | sell | 106.64 | $0.982 | $104.72 | Nov 26, 2024 |
 Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.0%-2.5%?Yes | buy | 493.48 | $0.405 | $199.86 | Nov 9, 2024 |
| Will Jill Stein get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate?Yes | sell | 109 | $0.917 | $99.91 | Nov 9, 2024 |
| Will Jill Stein get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate?Yes | sell | 109 | $0.917 | $99.95 | Nov 9, 2024 |
| Will Jill Stein get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate?Yes | buy | 324.65 | $0.626 | $203.23 | Nov 7, 2024 |
 U.S. Presidential election decided by ≤100k votes?Yes | buy | 0.16 | $0.490 | $0.08 | Nov 5, 2024 |
 Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | sell | 47.34 | $0.001 | $0.05 | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | sell | 28 | $0.001 | $0.03 | Nov 5, 2024 |
 Harris gets more Republican voters than Biden?No | buy | 207.59 | $0.540 | $112 | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Nov 4?Yes | sell | 44.76 | $0.002 | $0.09 | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.1-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 1.33 | $0.450 | $0.6 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Nov 4?Yes | sell | 8 | $0.076 | $0.61 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.1-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 6.73 | $0.450 | $3.03 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Nov 4?Yes | sell | 8 | $0.115 | $0.92 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Nov 4?Yes | sell | 17 | $0.124 | $2.1 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.1-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 2.86 | $0.440 | $1.26 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 5.88 | $0.170 | $1 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 8.7 | $0.230 | $2 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.1-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 22.73 | $0.440 | $10 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 11.76 | $0.170 | $2 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 8.7 | $0.230 | $2 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 17.39 | $0.230 | $4 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.1-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 45.45 | $0.440 | $20 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 29.41 | $0.170 | $5 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 13.29 | $0.226 | $3 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 18.18 | $0.220 | $4 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 24.46 | $0.164 | $4 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.1-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 22.73 | $0.440 | $10 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Harris lead in RCP by 0-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 9.09 | $0.220 | $2 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.5-0.9 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.160 | $1 | Nov 3, 2024 |
| Will Trump lead in RCP by 0.1-0.4 on Nov 4?Yes | buy | 10.07 | $0.440 | $4.43 | Nov 2, 2024 |
 Trump ≥12% in Selzer Iowa poll?No | buy | 75.01 | $0.933 | $70 | Nov 2, 2024 |
 Alito recuses himself from any Jan 6 case?No | buy | 32.23 | $0.987 | $31.81 | Nov 2, 2024 |
 Israel military action against Yemen before November?No | buy | 31.8 | $0.976 | $31.03 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Alito recuses himself from any Jan 6 case?No | buy | 42.28 | $0.962 | $40.67 | Oct 30, 2024 |
 Will Alexandr Stoianoglo win the 2024 Moldova presidential election?Yes | buy | 16.65 | $0.197 | $3.28 | Oct 25, 2024 |
 Will Trump say "Mars" during Las Vegas rally on October 24?No | buy | 3.28 | $0.290 | $0.95 | Oct 23, 2024 |
 Donald Trump 538 odds >55% on Friday?No | buy | 59.41 | $0.850 | $50.5 | Oct 22, 2024 |
 Strike on Dimonah nuclear base in October?No | sell | 51.24 | $0.971 | $49.75 | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Donald Trump 538 odds >55% on Friday?No | buy | 7.83 | $0.750 | $5.87 | Oct 21, 2024 |
 Kamala Harris 538 odds >55% on Friday?No | buy | 5.87 | $0.989 | $5.81 | Oct 18, 2024 |
 European Central Bank cuts rates in Oct meeting?Yes | buy | 5.81 | $0.930 | $5.4 | Oct 9, 2024 |
 Who will win the VP debate according to polls?Walz | sell | 245.56 | $0.022 | $5.4 | Oct 8, 2024 |
 Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?No | buy | 46.11 | $0.925 | $42.64 | Oct 6, 2024 |
 Will Israel target Tehran?No | buy | 42.64 | $0.999 | $42.6 | Oct 5, 2024 |
 Will Russia capture Vuhledar before October?No | buy | 42.59 | $0.983 | $41.87 | Oct 3, 2024 |
 Will the VP debate have 40-45m viewers?Yes | buy | 41.88 | $0.990 | $41.46 | Oct 2, 2024 |