Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 14% on 30 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2024 to 3 Nov 2024, the highest close was 14% on 30 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 3 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 0.4% on 3 Nov 2024. $5.63K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 3, 11:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 30 Oct 2024 – 3 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2024 | 14.0% |
| 3 Nov 2024 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump's polling margin between himself and the second place candidate is 12% or greater in Anne Selzer's final Iowa 2024 presidential election poll. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no Selzer poll is published by November 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for the market will be the final Selzer Iowa 2024 presidential election poll.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-12-in-selzer-iowa-poll
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| op2op | No | 0.01 |
