Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?Yes | sell | 27.27 | $0.030 | $0.82 | Jan 25, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 27.27 |
| $0.220 |
| $6 |
| Jan 23, 2026 |
 US government shutdown Saturday?No | sell | 6.1 | $0.910 | $5.55 | Jan 23, 2026 |
 North Korea missile launch by January 31?No | buy | 10 | $0.610 | $6.1 | Jan 9, 2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday?No | buy | 13.16 | $0.760 | $10 | Jan 4, 2026 |
 Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?No | buy | 18.52 | $0.540 | $10 | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No | sell | 27.25 | $0.978 | $26.65 | Jan 1, 2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No | buy | 27.26 | $0.734 | $20 | Dec 30, 2025 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 1.75 | $0.440 | $0.77 | Dec 30, 2025 |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 4 | $0.300 | $1.2 | Dec 30, 2025 |
 Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | sell | 18.12 | $0.995 | $18.03 | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 1.75 | $0.570 | $1 | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 4 | $0.250 | $1 | Dec 17, 2025 |
 US announces return to Bagram base in Afghanistan by December 31?Yes | sell | 28.57 | $0.004 | $0.11 | Dec 17, 2025 |
 Will the U.S. invade Afghanistan in 2025?Yes | sell | 45.95 | $0.004 | $0.18 | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 5.43 | $0.920 | $5 | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 5.7 | $0.920 | $5.24 | Dec 17, 2025 |
 Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No | sell | 25.86 | $0.460 | $11.9 | Dec 16, 2025 |
| North Korea missile launch by December 31?No | buy | 6.76 | $0.740 | $5 | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | sell | 0.21 | $0.900 | $0.19 | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No | buy | 8.62 | $0.580 | $5 | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No | buy | 17.24 | $0.580 | $10 | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No | sell | 16.37 | $0.999 | $16.35 | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No | buy | 16.37 | $0.611 | $10 | Dec 7, 2025 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No | sell | 13.59 | $0.991 | $13.47 | Dec 7, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 7.21 | $0.680 | $4.9 | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No | buy | 5.56 | $0.720 | $4 | Dec 2, 2025 |
| North Korea missile launch by December 31?No | buy | 6.9 | $0.580 | $4 | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?No | buy | 8.04 | $0.746 | $6 | Dec 1, 2025 |
| North Korea missile launch by December 31?No | buy | 9.09 | $0.660 | $6 | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Will the U.S. invade Afghanistan in 2025?Yes | buy | 45.95 | $0.022 | $1 | Nov 28, 2025 |
| US announces return to Bagram base in Afghanistan by December 31?Yes | buy | 28.57 | $0.035 | $1 | Nov 28, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes | sell | 7.22 | $0.950 | $6.86 | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes | buy | 7.22 | $0.900 | $6.5 | Nov 24, 2025 |
 Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?No | buy | 3.23 | $0.620 | $2 | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?No | buy | 3.23 | $0.620 | $2 | Nov 19, 2025 |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?No | sell | 6.09 | $0.650 | $3.96 | Nov 16, 2025 |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 30?No | buy | 13.33 | $0.600 | $8 | Nov 16, 2025 |
| North Korea missile launch by November 30?No | buy | 6.76 | $0.740 | $5 | Nov 15, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes | sell | 5.75 | $0.890 | $5.12 | Nov 15, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?No | buy | 6.1 | $0.820 | $5 | Nov 7, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?No | sell | 4.38 | $0.930 | $4.07 | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes | buy | 5.75 | $0.870 | $5 | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes | sell | 6.94 | $0.920 | $6.38 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14?No | buy | 4.38 | $0.760 | $3.33 | Nov 2, 2025 |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes | buy | 6.94 | $0.720 | $5 | Nov 1, 2025 |
 Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 3PM ETUp | buy | 3.57 | $0.280 | $1 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by November 15?No | buy | 7.51 | $0.590 | $4.43 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 15?Yes | buy | 2.69 | $0.372 | $1 | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?No | buy | 3.85 | $0.520 | $2 | Oct 15, 2025 |