Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 8, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$137.4K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 8, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 8 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 4.3% on 14 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 56 daily closes on record from 14 Oct 2025 to 8 Dec 2025, the highest close was 35.6% on 5 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 8 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 0.5% on 7 Dec 2025. $137.37K traded over the market's life.

98 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:02 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 56 points, 14 Oct 2025 – 8 Dec 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
14 Oct 2025	4.3%
8 Dec 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	13.18K
JHRUE	Yes	2.15K
DEGENKHAN	Yes	1.57K

10 of 98 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 13, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.