Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 20 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 197 daily closes on record from 20 Jun 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 7.3% on 30 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 29 Dec 2025. $158.83K traded over the market's life.
65 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 197 points, 20 Jun 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Jun 2025 | 5.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emptyyyy | Yes | 6.22K |
| Eden149 | Yes | 1.8K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 439 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Afghanistan between June 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Afghanistan or the United States as of June 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-afghanistan-in-2025
| lissartter | Yes | 294.02 |
| Morlune | Yes | 190.23 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 189.98 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 161.98 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 155.2 |
| Indigo Quasar C4D8 | Yes | 139.02 |
| oak | Yes | 138 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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