Analytics
flawfence has made $505.64K on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 50 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-10-25 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 584.49K | $0.248 | $568.42K | +$423.21K |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
This view does not establish the wallet’s complete trading history.
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-10-25 22:31 UTC
Polymarket public position response
50 open positions returned; page coverage partial
2026-10-25 23:45 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
Recent fills unavailable
2026-10-25 23:45 UTC
polymarket positions
51 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-10-25 22:31 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $2.06M and losing ones cost $83.56K across the latest 50 settled positions. 96% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $128.85K on “Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” (No); the largest loss, $56K on “Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs” (TEAM VISION).
It has traded 702 markets. Its open positions are worth $1.4M across 141 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| No |
| 322.16K |
| $0.682 |
| $233.56K |
| +$13.78K |
 Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 94.72K | $0.628 | $64.89K | +$5.43K |
 Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | Yes | 79.55K | $0.508 | $53.3K | +$12.84K |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | Yes | 65.51K | $0.224 | $51.1K | +$36.4K |
 Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 69.75K | $0.635 | $47.78K | +$3.48K |
 Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 51.95K | $0.864 | $44.65K | -$217.66 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 43.68K | $0.822 | $37.79K | +$1.87K |
 Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Yes | 42.63K | $0.359 | $37.73K | +$22.42K |
 Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 32.33K | $0.863 | $23.6K | -$4.3K |
 Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | Yes | 23.96K | $0.304 | $23.25K | +$15.98K |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%? | No | 18.37K | $0.900 | $18.35K | +$1.82K |
 Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | No | 20.34K | $0.450 | $13.53K | +$4.36K |
 Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | Yes | 14.73K | $0.748 | $11.12K | +$104.42 |
 Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 18.34K | $0.541 | $10.91K | +$993.91 |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 10.6K | $0.879 | $9.71K | +$389.83 |
 Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 20.8K | $0.241 | $9K | +$3.99K |
 Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | No | 8.83K | $0.303 | $8.78K | +$6.11K |
 Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | No | 11K | $0.795 | $7.48K | -$1.27K |
 Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 11.83K | $0.625 | $7.16K | -$236.75 |
 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 10.35K | $0.550 | $6.47K | +$780.17 |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 20.64K | $0.213 | $6.08K | +$1.69K |
 Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 7.83K | $0.740 | $5.91K | +$117.51 |
 Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 10K | $0.570 | $5.7K | +$0.04 |
 Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 5.89K | $0.727 | $5.69K | +$1.41K |
4 of 6 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.
