Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Yes | buy | 34 | $0.100 | $3.4 | Apr 2, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 100 |
| $0.033 |
| $3.3 |
| Apr 2, 2026 |
 NATO Article 5 by March 31?Yes | sell | 170 | $0.052 | $8.89 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| NATO article 5 before 2027?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.110 | $22 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.059 | $5.9 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.011 | $1.1 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| NATO article 5 before 2027?Yes | buy | 25.1 | $0.140 | $3.51 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| NATO Article 5 by March 31?Yes | buy | 16.14 | $0.100 | $1.61 | Mar 5, 2026 |
 Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | sell | 401.26 | $0.162 | $65 | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 142.86 | $0.490 | $70 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 102.98 | $0.486 | $50 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 155.42 | $0.483 | $75 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | sell | 188.67 | $0.385 | $72.69 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 188.68 | $0.530 | $100 | Mar 2, 2026 |
 France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Yes | sell | 206.22 | $0.336 | $69.29 | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | sell | 221.77 | $0.430 | $95.36 | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 106.38 | $0.470 | $50 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 206.22 | $0.339 | $70 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Yes | sell | 213.63 | $0.248 | $52.94 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 71.63 | $0.349 | $25 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 48.13 | $0.374 | $18 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 13.37 | $0.374 | $5 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 26.94 | $0.371 | $10 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 27.24 | $0.367 | $10 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 26.32 | $0.380 | $10 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 19.23 | $0.520 | $10 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 96.15 | $0.520 | $50 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | sell | 183.1 | $0.487 | $89.24 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 47.62 | $0.420 | $20 | Mar 1, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.040 | $2 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 64.52 | $0.310 | $20 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 6.45 | $0.310 | $2 | Mar 1, 2026 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes | buy | 86.96 | $0.460 | $40 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 28.57 | $0.035 | $1 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 57.14 | $0.035 | $2 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 64.52 | $0.310 | $20 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes | buy | 501.85 | $0.540 | $271 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Yes | sell | 77.53 | $0.185 | $14.36 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Yes | buy | 77.54 | $0.258 | $20 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 Khamenei seen in public by March 1?Yes | sell | 142.85 | $0.017 | $2.38 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei seen in public by March 1?Yes | buy | 142.86 | $0.070 | $10 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes | sell | 545.33 | $0.520 | $283.57 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes | buy | 545.34 | $0.523 | $285 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes | sell | 293.47 | $0.972 | $285.25 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 293.48 | $0.460 | $135 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 77.27 | $0.220 | $17 | Feb 27, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 43.47 | $0.400 | $17.39 | Feb 26, 2026 |
 Pakistan strikes Afghanistan by February 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.98 | $0.600 | $4.79 | Feb 26, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.100 | $3 | Feb 26, 2026 |
 Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.100 | $2 | Feb 26, 2026 |