Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 6% on 25 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 6% on 25 Nov 2025 and the low 0.1% on 30 Mar 2026. $10.61M traded over the market's life.
1,000 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 7:18 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 119 points, 25 Nov 2025 – 1 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Nov 2025 | 6.0% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TheOnlySource | Yes | 205.69K |
| Abdullahalfarabi | Yes | 177.31K |
| Alarming-Elevator | Yes | 114.74K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-march-31-2026
| Yes |
| 52.43K |
| dubing | Yes | 51K |
| BTCSHOT | Yes | 50.68K |
| Modest-Explorer | Yes | 44.36K |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 44.31K |
| FortuneTella | Yes | 42.74K |
| xbtliquid | Yes | 42.27K |
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