Latest trade
Dec 31, 2025 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 27, 7:01 AM UTC.
Analytics
lucasmurphy is down $491.04 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 12 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2025-09-17 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Dec 31, 2025 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 27, 7:01 AM UTC.
$12.11 median trade
Its latest 47 trades covered 17 markets; 68.1% were buys. They run from Aug 6, 2025 UTC to Dec 31, 2025 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
Polymarket returned no open positions for this wallet.
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ETDown | buy | 2.16 | $0.810 | $1.75 | Dec 31, 2025 UTC |
 |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2025-09-17 21:27 UTC
Polymarket public position response
0 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-27 07:01 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
47 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-27 07:01 UTC
polymarket positions
13 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2025-09-17 21:27 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $11.99 and losing ones cost $295.92 across 12 settled positions. 25% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $7.61 on “Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 3PM ET” (Down); the largest loss, $131.66 on “Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 31 Dec 2025. It has traded 17 markets. It holds no open positions.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| buy |
| 150 |
| $0.600 |
| $90 |
| Dec 30, 2025 UTC |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 51°F or below on December 30?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.550 | $8.25 | Dec 30, 2025 UTC |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 336.38 | $0.058 | $19.51 | Sep 17, 2025 UTC |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 848.2 | $0.023 | $19.51 | Sep 17, 2025 UTC |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 848.2 | $0.024 | $20 | Sep 16, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 4PM ETUp | buy | 27.43 | $0.400 | $10.97 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
 Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET?Yes | sell | 7.18 | $0.010 | $0.07 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET?Yes | sell | 1.09K | $0.010 | $10.9 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET?Yes | buy | 907.18 | $0.130 | $117.93 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $3700 and $3800 on August 7 at 5PM ET?Yes | buy | 190 | $0.130 | $24.7 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
 Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?No | sell | 198.38 | $0.002 | $0.4 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
 Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?No | sell | 9.01K | $0.002 | $18.01 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released on August 10?Yes | buy | 1.9K | $0.005 | $10 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released on August 8?Yes | buy | 1.14K | $0.009 | $10 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?No | buy | 4.66K | $0.009 | $40 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?No | sell | 4.09K | $0.045 | $184.22 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?No | buy | 6.8K | $0.025 | $169.72 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released on August 10?Yes | buy | 599.33 | $0.017 | $10 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released on August 8?Yes | buy | 652.94 | $0.031 | $20 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released on August 10?Yes | buy | 534.22 | $0.006 | $3 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released on August 9?Yes | buy | 1.05K | $0.006 | $6 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released on August 8?Yes | buy | 339.73 | $0.029 | $10 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?No | buy | 198.38 | $0.065 | $12.82 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?No | buy | 748.14 | $0.028 | $20.92 | Aug 7, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?No | buy | 891.25 | $0.026 | $23.16 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 3PM ETDown | sell | 27.25 | $0.850 | $23.16 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 3PM ETDown | buy | 27.26 | $0.571 | $15.56 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2PM ETDown | sell | 15.72 | $0.990 | $15.56 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2PM ETDown | buy | 15.73 | $0.770 | $12.11 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2PM ETUp | sell | 150.07 | $0.081 | $12.11 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2PM ETUp | buy | 150.07 | $0.570 | $85.54 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2PM ETDown | sell | 189.98 | $0.450 | $85.54 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2PM ETDown | buy | 189.98 | $0.520 | $98.79 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 3AM ETDown | buy | 16.98 | $0.450 | $7.64 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2AM ETDown | sell | 7.72 | $0.990 | $7.64 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2AM ETDown | buy | 7.73 | $0.654 | $5.05 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2AM ETUp | sell | 17.41 | $0.290 | $5.05 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2AM ETUp | buy | 17.42 | $0.606 | $10.55 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2AM ETDown | sell | 29.31 | $0.360 | $10.55 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2AM ETDown | buy | 29.31 | $0.770 | $22.57 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 12AM ETDown | buy | 9.09 | $0.550 | $5 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 12AM ETUp | sell | 41.54 | $0.445 | $18.48 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 12AM ETUp | buy | 23.02 | $0.440 | $10.13 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 12AM ETUp | buy | 18.52 | $0.540 | $10 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 11PM ETDown | sell | 1.29 | $0.990 | $1.28 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 11PM ETDown | buy | 1.3 | $0.770 | $1 | Aug 6, 2025 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 5 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.